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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions754902040601001201403846

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+8
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
5Coral scored#7
18Coral points25
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
28Total teleop33
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#9
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
38Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1684
#24
31.73.1
25.622.6
Auto5.5
Teleop24.3
End1.9
red by 8.3
5046
#11
23.40.1
15.715.6
Auto4.3
Teleop12.3
End6.9
Second
5907
#18
26.53.1
27.023.9
Auto3.4
Teleop22.2
End0.9
red by 6.2
9662
#19
20.30.1
13.813.7
Auto4.7
Teleop14.3
End1.3
Third
7772
#36
14.53.1
13.110.0
Auto4.4
Teleop8.8
End1.4
blue by 1.2
9237
#38
15.70.1
17.117.0
Auto2.9
Teleop12.0
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed