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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions845920401001206068

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+16
Endgame+18
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points10
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +12
6Coral scored#10
23Coral points35
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
37Total teleop49
Reef
2L4#4
3L3#4
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
12Foul points2
60Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.12.7
30.427.7
Auto4.0
Teleop22.8
End2.3
red by 1.6
3667
#12
27.50.9
24.625.5
Auto6.4
Teleop19.4
End1.8
Second
6085
#25
20.52.7
22.019.3
Auto3.9
Teleop15.8
End0.8
red by 4.7
9237
#38
15.70.9
13.514.4
Auto2.9
Teleop12.0
End0.8
Third
5878
#20
19.92.7
19.817.1
Auto4.3
Teleop14.6
End1.0
red by 5.2
9242
#28
14.70.9
16.917.7
Auto3.0
Teleop10.1
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed6%Barge oddsMissed