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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7252204060801001207936

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+29Teleop
+41Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +22
10Coral scored#4
35Coral points15
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
45Total teleop23
Reef
5L4#1
2L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#6
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
2Foul points0
79Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.21.6
38.139.7
Auto7.1
Teleop29.7
End5.4
red by 14.2
6078
#10
28.01.4
24.022.6
Auto3.5
Teleop18.7
End5.8
Second
5612
#30
19.91.6
15.917.5
Auto5.3
Teleop12.8
End1.9
red by 7.7
4395
#37
12.21.4
12.711.3
Auto3.9
Teleop5.1
End3.2
Third
5527
#32
9.71.6
5.57.1
Auto3.2
Teleop4.5
End2.1
blue by 2.0
3568
#17
11.81.4
9.78.2
Auto2.4
Teleop9.7
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed