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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions457102060801006956

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +1
9Coral scored#7
33Coral points24
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
0Processor points6
12Net points16
12Algae points22
45Total teleop46
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points0
69Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1684
#24
31.72.0
22.324.3
Auto5.5
Teleop24.3
End1.9
red by 2.6
29.10.4
27.727.3
Auto4.0
Teleop22.8
End2.3
Second
6091
#13
15.02.0
14.316.3
Auto3.3
Teleop10.3
End1.3
blue by 4.7
3098
#27
19.70.4
14.113.7
Auto3.8
Teleop14.0
End2.0
Third
5527
#32
9.72.0
7.19.1
Auto3.2
Teleop4.5
End2.1
blue by 5.1
6610
#39
14.90.4
18.317.9
Auto4.0
Teleop9.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed