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Red199
205471.2
1065427.4
207560.3
Blue111
438141.1
387539.5
85829.9
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185119100150200250199111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+78Teleop
+88Endgame
+88Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave6
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
40Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +60
29Coral scored#13
105Coral points45
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
133Total teleop73
Reef
14L4#4
6L3#4
9L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
41Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +88
0Foul points0
199Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.21.0
70.271.2
Auto20.9
Teleop42.2
End8.1
red by 30.0
4381
#10
41.10.0
41.141.1
Auto13.6
Teleop21.0
End6.6
Second
60.31.0
59.460.3
Auto16.9
Teleop33.5
End10.0
red by 20.9
39.50.0
39.539.5
Auto5.9
Teleop30.5
End3.1
Third
27.41.0
26.527.4
Auto7.9
Teleop18.2
End1.3
blue by 2.5
858
#22
29.90.0
29.929.9
Auto6.8
Teleop24.4
End-1.3