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Red192
205471.2
1065427.4
207560.3
Blue121
438141.1
387539.5
85829.9
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions183119100150200250192121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+51Teleop
+71Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave3
11Coral scored#6
54Coral points30
54Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +30
16Coral scored#18
58Coral points66
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#3
24Processor points6
32Net points12
56Algae points18
114Total teleop84
Reef
12L4#11
6L3#6
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#28
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +71
0Foul points0
192Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.20.7
69.670.2
Auto20.9
Teleop42.2
End8.1
red by 30.0
4381
#10
41.10.0
41.141.1
Auto13.6
Teleop21.0
End6.6
Second
60.30.7
58.759.4
Auto16.9
Teleop33.5
End10.0
red by 20.9
39.50.0
39.439.5
Auto5.9
Teleop30.5
End3.1
Third
27.40.7
25.826.5
Auto7.9
Teleop18.2
End1.3
blue by 2.5
858
#22
29.90.0
29.829.9
Auto6.8
Teleop24.4
End-1.3