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Red157
438141.1
387539.5
85829.9
Blue132
442245.8
781016.7
496755.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12413750100150200157132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave0
7Coral scored#6
33Coral points30
36Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +17
19Coral scored#18
69Coral points64
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#3
12Processor points12
24Net points12
36Algae points24
105Total teleop88
Reef
7L4#6
10L3#7
5L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
157Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4381
#10
41.10.8
40.341.1
Auto13.6
Teleop21.0
End6.6
blue by 14.7
55.80.0
55.855.8
Auto12.8
Teleop36.1
End7.0
Second
39.50.8
38.739.4
Auto5.9
Teleop30.5
End3.1
blue by 6.3
45.80.0
45.745.8
Auto9.9
Teleop28.7
End7.2
Third
858
#22
29.90.8
29.129.8
Auto6.8
Teleop24.4
End-1.3
red by 13.1
7810
#36
16.70.0
16.716.7
Auto4.5
Teleop8.9
End3.4