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Red187
496755.8
956631.6
277141.0
Blue88
969715.5
829720.7
85829.9
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions124755010015020018788

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+69Teleop
+93Endgame
+99Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave9
7Coral scored#0
33Coral points0
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +45
28Coral scored#16
100Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
12Processor points12
12Net points8
24Algae points20
124Total teleop79
Reef
14L4#4
10L3#6
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#20
BargeRed +24
24Cage & park0
24Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +99
6Foul points0
187Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.83.9
40.144.0
Auto12.8
Teleop36.1
End7.0
red by 26.0
858
#22
29.90.1
29.930.0
Auto6.8
Teleop24.4
End-1.3
Second
41.03.9
27.231.1
Auto10.0
Teleop24.5
End6.5
red by 20.4
8297
#23
20.70.1
18.818.9
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End1.7
Third
9566
#11
31.63.9
27.631.5
Auto6.2
Teleop22.8
End2.6
red by 16.1
9697
#38
15.50.1
11.511.6
Auto4.6
Teleop9.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed