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Red129
21625.6
839738.5
1063339.2
Blue93
24445.8
365838.7
90419.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11412105010015020012993

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
6Coral scored#3
29Coral points13
29Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +7
14Coral scored#14
50Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
74Total teleop67
Reef
6L4#8
7L3#4
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +36
12Foul points0
129Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.20.3
38.638.9
Auto3.5
Teleop33.9
End1.8
blue by 6.5
244
#8
45.80.3
46.145.8
Auto6.9
Teleop32.4
End6.5
Second
38.50.3
37.938.2
Auto7.0
Teleop23.3
End8.1
blue by 0.2
3658
#12
38.70.3
39.038.7
Auto5.5
Teleop31.2
End2.0
Third
216
#21
25.60.3
25.025.3
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End2.0
red by 5.9
904
#18
19.70.3
20.019.7
Auto4.2
Teleop11.2
End4.3