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Red144
828528.1
781828.6
920832.5
Blue126
24445.8
365838.7
90419.7
25%Model gave it75%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99128050150200144126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
0Teleop0
+16Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points13
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +3
18Coral scored#19
65Coral points68
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
93Total teleop96
Reef
6L4#11
10L3#3
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#28
BargeRed +16
30Cage & park14
30Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +18
2Foul points0
144Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9208
#19
32.50.8
30.731.4
Auto6.1
Teleop17.7
End8.8
blue by 13.2
244
#8
45.80.0
45.845.8
Auto6.9
Teleop32.4
End6.5
Second
7818
#13
28.60.8
26.727.5
Auto4.6
Teleop17.3
End6.8
blue by 10.1
3658
#12
38.70.0
38.738.7
Auto5.5
Teleop31.2
End2.0
Third
8285
#14
28.10.8
26.327.0
Auto5.0
Teleop17.2
End6.0
red by 8.5
904
#18
19.70.0
19.719.7
Auto4.2
Teleop11.2
End4.3