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Red128
21625.6
839738.5
1063339.2
Blue138
442245.8
781016.7
496755.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11313550100150200128138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+4
Endgame+14
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
1Coral scored#4
6Coral points20
12Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +10
20Coral scored#16
72Coral points58
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
96Total teleop86
Reef
7L4#8
6L3#6
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points2
128Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.20.4
38.839.2
Auto3.5
Teleop33.9
End1.8
blue by 16.6
55.80.4
55.255.6
Auto12.8
Teleop36.1
End7.0
Second
38.50.4
38.038.5
Auto7.0
Teleop23.3
End8.1
blue by 7.3
45.80.4
45.145.5
Auto9.9
Teleop28.7
End7.2
Third
216
#21
25.60.4
25.225.6
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End2.0
red by 8.9
7810
#36
16.70.4
16.116.5
Auto4.5
Teleop8.9
End3.4