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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions669820408012014016051122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+49
Endgame+57
Fouls+71
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave9
1Coral scored#4
7Coral points21
13Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +32
6Coral scored#11
20Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
6Processor points6
4Net points16
10Algae points22
30Total teleop62
Reef
2L4#5
2L3#3
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
9Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +8
4Cage & park12
4Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +71
4Foul points18
51Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
573
#7
31.32.0
27.925.9
Auto6.9
Teleop20.4
End4.0
blue by 14.9
70
#8
46.11.7
39.941.6
Auto7.5
Teleop32.7
End5.9
Second
5084
#19
24.42.0
23.121.0
Auto4.4
Teleop17.4
End2.6
blue by 16.5
2145
#12
40.91.7
33.935.6
Auto12.9
Teleop27.9
End0.1
Third
16.22.0
14.312.3
Auto4.7
Teleop9.7
End1.7
blue by 11.7
1504
#26
27.91.7
14.616.3
Auto4.5
Teleop21.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsMissed