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Red210
147762.6
168374.2
332255.4
Blue193
670234.8
16764.2
233782.5
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions204191050100150250300350210193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
+7Teleop
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousBlue +28
0Leave3
5Coral scored#10
23Coral points48
23Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +35
24Coral scored#22
85Coral points80
6Processor algae#3
10Net algae#7
36Processor points18
40Net points28
76Algae points46
161Total teleop126
Reef
14L4#17
7L3#5
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
45Game pieces#42
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points0
210Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1683
#18
74.21.4
71.873.2
Auto12.2
Teleop54.6
End7.4
blue by 8.3
2337
#51
82.51.0
81.582.4
Auto22.6
Teleop51.2
End8.7
Second
1477
#31
62.61.4
63.665.0
Auto11.8
Teleop42.1
End8.7
blue by 1.5
167
#66
64.21.0
63.264.2
Auto20.5
Teleop38.5
End5.2
Third
3322
#44
55.41.4
54.055.4
Auto10.2
Teleop37.1
End8.1
red by 20.5
6702
#67
34.81.0
33.934.8
Auto5.5
Teleop27.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed65%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned