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Red209
432260.1
233782.5
248664.1
Blue237
557262.0
301565.9
360476.0
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions211188120140160180200220240260280209237

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+10
Endgame+30
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave3
8Coral scored#10
39Coral points48
45Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +4
23Coral scored#34
82Coral points124
4Processor algae#1
10Net algae#5
24Processor points6
40Net points20
64Algae points26
146Total teleop150
Reef
10L4#13
10L3#13
7L2#10
4L1 · trough#8
45Game pieces#50
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
2Foul points0
209Total score237

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2337
#51
82.50.1
80.680.5
Auto22.6
Teleop51.2
End8.7
red by 6.5
3604
#39
76.03.0
62.966.0
Auto13.2
Teleop54.0
End8.8
Second
2486
#22
64.10.1
58.458.3
Auto13.6
Teleop39.2
End11.3
blue by 1.8
3015
#14
65.93.0
58.461.4
Auto16.3
Teleop40.5
End9.1
Third
4322
#32
60.10.1
58.358.2
Auto15.1
Teleop40.1
End4.9
blue by 1.9
5572
#33
62.03.0
58.761.8
Auto17.8
Teleop34.8
End9.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
73%Coral oddsEarned50%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned98%Barge oddsEarned