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Red185
580023.0
168374.2
194268.4
Blue168
705660.1
415277.0
842942.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162191100150250300185168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points31
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +20
23Coral scored#20
81Coral points71
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
18Processor points12
20Net points16
38Algae points28
119Total teleop99
Reef
9L4#9
12L3#7
6L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
6Foul points6
185Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1683
#18
74.21.5
64.866.3
Auto12.2
Teleop54.6
End7.4
blue by 2.8
4152
#52
77.00.9
68.767.7
Auto23.1
Teleop43.8
End10.1
Second
1942
#11
68.41.5
69.971.3
Auto18.2
Teleop43.8
End6.4
red by 8.3
7056
#30
60.10.9
61.260.3
Auto10.9
Teleop40.0
End9.2
Third
5800
#72
23.01.5
19.721.2
Auto5.8
Teleop15.7
End1.5
blue by 19.1
8429
#57
42.20.9
43.042.0
Auto12.2
Teleop26.6
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed68%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned