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Red166
902936.5
301565.9
297639.3
Blue155
32150.5
374848.8
1001524.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions148127100200166155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+15Teleop
+13Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave9
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points22
37Total auto31
TeleoperatedRed +9
20Coral scored#22
71Coral points78
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
24Processor points12
20Net points16
44Algae points28
115Total teleop106
Reef
12L4#8
8L3#11
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points2
166Total score155

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3015
#14
65.92.1
61.863.9
Auto16.3
Teleop40.5
End9.1
red by 15.4
321
#60
50.51.9
50.752.6
Auto13.7
Teleop31.4
End5.5
Second
2976
#25
39.32.1
38.140.1
Auto9.0
Teleop27.4
End2.9
blue by 9.5
3748
#55
48.81.9
47.449.3
Auto7.4
Teleop33.0
End8.4
Third
9029
#42
36.52.1
28.931.0
Auto8.3
Teleop26.7
End1.5
red by 12.2
24.31.9
20.922.8
Auto7.1
Teleop14.2
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsMissed79%Barge oddsEarned