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Red133
224049.5
557262.0
272029.0
Blue165
1002149.6
406950.9
314260.5
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16317850100150200250133165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+24
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points24
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +31
14Coral scored#24
50Coral points85
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
18Processor points6
12Net points20
30Algae points26
80Total teleop111
Reef
11L4#10
5L3#7
2L2#8
2L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
133Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5572
#33
62.01.0
65.164.2
Auto17.8
Teleop34.8
End9.4
red by 1.6
3142
#36
60.50.5
59.459.9
Auto13.9
Teleop35.7
End10.8
Second
2240
#61
49.51.0
52.951.9
Auto10.1
Teleop38.7
End0.7
blue by 1.4
4069
#63
50.90.5
53.453.9
Auto9.1
Teleop33.5
End8.2
Third
2720
#70
29.01.0
29.428.5
Auto8.9
Teleop12.0
End8.0
blue by 20.6
49.60.5
45.145.6
Auto6.5
Teleop39.6
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed82%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsEarned