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Red153
32150.5
32463.1
508932.2
Blue186
146865.3
589583.9
580023.0
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions150190100200250153186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+21
Endgame+39
Fouls+33
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave6
4Coral scored#4
20Coral points21
26Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +20
20Coral scored#23
71Coral points83
2Processor algae#4
8Net algae#7
12Processor points24
32Net points28
44Algae points52
115Total teleop135
Reef
7L4#13
8L3#4
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
34Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
6Foul points0
153Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
324
#56
63.10.2
57.056.8
Auto8.6
Teleop46.2
End8.4
blue by 20.8
83.90.5
82.382.8
Auto24.0
Teleop49.6
End10.3
Second
321
#60
50.50.2
52.652.4
Auto13.7
Teleop31.4
End5.5
blue by 14.8
1468
#62
65.30.5
63.163.6
Auto12.3
Teleop46.2
End6.7
Third
5089
#12
32.20.2
29.229.0
Auto6.2
Teleop24.9
End1.1
red by 9.2
5800
#72
23.00.5
21.321.9
Auto5.8
Teleop15.7
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
27%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed64%Barge oddsEarned