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Red114
181630.6
147762.6
25493.0
Blue187
95770.8
842942.2
213777.5
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions232206150250300114187

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+57
Endgame+69
Fouls+73
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave6
9Coral scored#9
43Coral points45
43Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +49
9Coral scored#21
31Coral points76
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
51Total teleop100
Reef
5L4#8
5L3#8
5L2#9
3L1 · trough#5
22Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +73
6Foul points10
114Total score187

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#4
93.06.6
97.590.9
Auto23.8
Teleop60.0
End9.3
red by 15.5
2137
#10
77.50.7
75.875.1
Auto20.2
Teleop49.6
End7.7
Second
1477
#31
62.66.6
71.364.7
Auto11.8
Teleop42.1
End8.7
blue by 8.2
957
#16
70.80.7
71.570.8
Auto18.9
Teleop40.8
End11.1
Third
1816
#64
30.66.6
38.231.6
Auto7.1
Teleop14.5
End8.9
blue by 11.6
8429
#57
42.20.7
40.439.7
Auto12.2
Teleop26.6
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
82%Coral oddsMissed81%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
100%Barge oddsMissed83%Barge oddsEarned