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Red194
341468.6
561474.2
194268.4
Blue232
412265.5
233782.5
300657.5
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions231221150200250300350194232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+26
Fouls+38
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
10Coral scored#8
52Coral points38
58Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +30
21Coral scored#30
74Coral points108
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
12Processor points12
24Net points20
36Algae points32
110Total teleop140
Reef
13L4#18
10L3#9
4L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#45
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +38
0Foul points12
194Total score232

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5614
#17
74.20.4
74.674.2
Auto20.2
Teleop44.0
End10.0
blue by 8.4
2337
#51
82.50.3
82.983.2
Auto22.6
Teleop51.2
End8.7
Second
3414
#40
68.60.4
69.068.6
Auto15.0
Teleop44.8
End8.8
red by 3.1
4122
#37
65.50.3
65.966.2
Auto9.4
Teleop46.5
End9.6
Third
1942
#11
68.40.4
68.868.4
Auto18.2
Teleop43.8
End6.4
red by 10.8
57.50.3
57.257.5
Auto12.0
Teleop35.8
End9.8