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Red149
357252.5
353723.6
148143.1
Blue136
354633.6
550543.2
437720.2
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1391096080100120160180200149136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+1
+1Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave9
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points21
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +3
20Coral scored#22
71Coral points80
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
18Processor points6
16Net points16
34Algae points22
105Total teleop102
Reef
9L4#7
5L3#11
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#31
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +13
12Foul points0
149Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.50.1
52.552.5
Auto13.3
Teleop32.3
End6.9
red by 9.4
43.20.6
42.543.2
Auto8.5
Teleop27.3
End7.4
Second
43.10.1
43.043.1
Auto6.6
Teleop34.2
End2.4
red by 9.5
3546
#17
33.60.6
33.033.6
Auto7.8
Teleop24.4
End1.4
Third
3537
#20
23.60.1
23.523.6
Auto6.0
Teleop15.4
End2.2
red by 3.4
4377
#36
20.20.6
19.620.2
Auto2.7
Teleop15.1
End2.5