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Red44
437720.2
516211.5
750130.5
Blue32
368821.5
608725.9
804112.6
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62672040801004432

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+6
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +3
3Coral scored#4
11Coral points16
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
19Total teleop22
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#5
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
44Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.52.5
27.525.0
Auto2.0
Teleop22.1
End6.4
red by 4.5
6087
#21
25.93.6
24.821.2
Auto2.5
Teleop20.4
End3.0
Second
4377
#36
20.22.5
18.315.7
Auto2.7
Teleop15.1
End2.5
blue by 1.4
3688
#27
21.53.6
24.320.8
Auto3.6
Teleop15.4
End2.6
Third
5162
#24
11.52.5
12.09.5
Auto1.6
Teleop7.2
End2.8
blue by 1.1
8041
#23
12.63.6
12.28.7
Auto3.5
Teleop6.7
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
30%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsMissed