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Red180
615232.6
506729.7
283258.7
Blue44
152813.2
1070521.4
973518.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1436305010020018044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+72Teleop
+80Endgame
+136Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave9
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points3
33Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +51
16Coral scored#6
59Coral points22
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
77Total teleop26
Reef
7L4#4
7L3#1
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#8
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +136
56Foul points0
180Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.70.4
44.544.8
Auto20.5
Teleop32.2
End6.0
red by 37.3
21.41.3
23.322.0
Auto5.6
Teleop12.5
End3.4
Second
6152
#20
32.60.4
32.232.6
Auto6.0
Teleop24.8
End1.9
red by 14.3
9735
#34
18.41.3
15.514.2
Auto5.1
Teleop12.0
End1.3
Third
5067
#14
29.70.4
32.933.3
Auto4.3
Teleop19.3
End6.1
red by 16.6
1528
#31
13.21.3
17.316.0
Auto6.3
Teleop5.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed