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Red89
759810.6
838510.4
717440.5
Blue39
28014.3
1070521.4
1065918.9
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions566602040801001201408939

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+50Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
6Leave6
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points9
37Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +28
9Coral scored#4
32Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
46Total teleop18
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points0
89Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.52.0
36.038.0
Auto15.0
Teleop22.9
End2.7
red by 19.1
21.41.5
23.522.0
Auto5.6
Teleop12.5
End3.4
Second
7598
#39
10.62.0
11.313.2
Auto2.5
Teleop5.8
End2.2
blue by 8.3
18.91.5
21.019.5
Auto4.6
Teleop13.2
End1.1
Third
8385
#37
10.42.0
6.28.2
Auto4.3
Teleop4.0
End2.2
blue by 3.9
280
#35
14.31.5
17.115.6
Auto2.4
Teleop10.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed