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Red70
152813.2
717440.5
590741.3
Blue124
653224.7
233769.4
561229.6
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions901445010020070124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+44
Endgame+52
Fouls+54
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points17
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +41
9Coral scored#16
31Coral points58
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
6Processor points12
4Net points12
10Algae points24
41Total teleop82
Reef
8L4#7
3L3#6
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +54
0Foul points2
70Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.31.1
35.434.3
Auto8.8
Teleop30.5
End2.0
blue by 28.0
69.40.1
67.867.9
Auto17.0
Teleop44.5
End7.9
Second
40.51.1
37.035.9
Auto15.0
Teleop22.9
End2.7
red by 10.9
5612
#10
29.60.1
28.628.7
Auto6.7
Teleop21.9
End1.0
Third
1528
#31
13.21.1
13.912.8
Auto6.3
Teleop5.2
End1.6
blue by 11.5
24.70.1
24.224.3
Auto5.2
Teleop13.2
End6.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed53%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed54%Barge oddsEarned