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Red141
439848.7
437723.7
439177.8
Blue122
776843.0
1050536.1
437534.1
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions167118100150200141122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+9Teleop
+19Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave9
5Coral scored#4
27Coral points22
33Total auto31
TeleoperatedRed +7
21Coral scored#16
74Coral points59
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
92Total teleop85
Reef
9L4#6
6L3#7
7L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points0
141Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.80.2
77.977.7
Auto17.6
Teleop50.0
End10.2
red by 34.8
43.00.2
43.443.6
Auto9.5
Teleop31.3
End2.2
Second
48.70.2
48.848.6
Auto7.4
Teleop38.9
End2.5
red by 12.6
36.10.2
36.536.7
Auto5.6
Teleop30.5
End0.1
Third
4377
#36
23.70.2
23.823.5
Auto3.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
blue by 10.5
4375
#35
34.10.2
34.534.7
Auto6.0
Teleop26.8
End1.3