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Red100
159627.2
922729.8
1060523.1
Blue51
437723.7
920517.1
607916.4
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions725820408010012010051

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+47Teleop
+49Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +46
13Coral scored#6
46Coral points20
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#3
12Processor points0
20Net points12
32Algae points12
78Total teleop32
Reef
6L4#2
4L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
0Foul points0
100Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9227
#20
29.81.4
20.121.5
Auto6.3
Teleop22.4
End1.2
red by 6.2
4377
#36
23.71.1
20.319.2
Auto3.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
Second
27.21.4
15.717.1
Auto4.0
Teleop22.9
End0.4
red by 10.1
9205
#25
17.11.1
14.713.5
Auto3.6
Teleop12.4
End1.1
Third
23.11.4
22.824.2
Auto4.2
Teleop16.9
End2.0
red by 6.6
6079
#38
16.41.1
14.613.4
Auto2.7
Teleop10.4
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned11%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed