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Red106
437723.7
975523.7
437534.1
Blue108
85741.5
655813.4
554737.9
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99111406080120140160180106108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+14Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +21
17Coral scored#13
61Coral points48
1Processor algae#1
7Net algae#5
6Processor points6
28Net points20
34Algae points26
95Total teleop74
Reef
7L4#4
5L3#4
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +16
0Cage & park16
0Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
2Foul points2
106Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4375
#35
34.10.3
32.632.9
Auto6.0
Teleop26.8
End1.3
blue by 7.3
857
#5
41.50.5
41.341.8
Auto8.8
Teleop26.5
End6.2
Second
9755
#24
23.70.3
22.823.1
Auto3.2
Teleop18.6
End1.9
blue by 14.2
37.90.5
35.736.2
Auto4.2
Teleop26.6
End7.1
Third
4377
#36
23.70.3
23.523.7
Auto3.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
red by 10.3
6558
#30
13.40.5
12.913.4
Auto2.8
Teleop9.3
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed61%Barge oddsEarned