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Red123
85741.5
360227.3
258644.7
Blue129
776843.0
1050536.1
437534.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125121050100150200250123129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+4
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave9
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +30
14Coral scored#19
52Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#7
12Processor points12
16Net points28
28Algae points40
80Total teleop110
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#6
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#28
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +6
4Foul points6
123Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2586
#10
44.70.1
45.045.1
Auto13.0
Teleop28.8
End2.8
red by 1.7
43.00.3
41.842.1
Auto9.5
Teleop31.3
End2.2
Second
857
#5
41.50.1
41.841.9
Auto8.8
Teleop26.5
End6.2
red by 5.3
36.10.3
34.935.2
Auto5.6
Teleop30.5
End0.1
Third
3602
#32
27.30.1
27.627.7
Auto3.5
Teleop22.5
End1.3
blue by 6.8
4375
#35
34.10.3
32.933.2
Auto6.0
Teleop26.8
End1.3