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Red138
496738.8
521321.2
531437.0
Blue121
598034.4
611222.1
612143.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11412380100140160138121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+19Teleop
+11Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
17Coral scored#16
60Coral points58
2Processor algae#1
7Net algae#6
12Processor points6
28Net points24
40Algae points30
100Total teleop88
Reef
6L4#8
8L3#3
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +17
6Foul points0
138Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
#14
38.80.3
38.138.4
Auto5.6
Teleop28.7
End4.5
blue by 5.1
6121
#18
43.90.1
43.543.4
Auto5.8
Teleop36.0
End2.2
Second
37.00.3
36.436.6
Auto5.2
Teleop24.0
End7.8
red by 2.6
5980
#11
34.40.1
34.534.4
Auto5.0
Teleop22.1
End7.2
Third
5213
#34
21.20.3
20.520.8
Auto2.6
Teleop15.0
End3.6
blue by 0.9
6112
#28
22.10.1
21.621.5
Auto3.3
Teleop11.9
End6.9