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Red140
439848.7
437723.7
439177.8
Blue137
776843.0
1050536.1
437534.1
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16811750100150200250140137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+11
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points11
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +14
21Coral scored#26
77Coral points95
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
12Processor points12
12Net points8
24Algae points20
101Total teleop115
Reef
9L4#12
8L3#8
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#32
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
140Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.80.3
77.877.5
Auto17.6
Teleop50.0
End10.2
red by 34.8
43.00.5
42.142.6
Auto9.5
Teleop31.3
End2.2
Second
48.70.3
48.748.4
Auto7.4
Teleop38.9
End2.5
red by 12.6
36.10.5
35.235.7
Auto5.6
Teleop30.5
End0.1
Third
4377
#36
23.70.3
23.623.3
Auto3.7
Teleop18.7
End1.2
blue by 10.5
4375
#35
34.10.5
33.233.7
Auto6.0
Teleop26.8
End1.3