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Red101
967917.6
955842.1
413028.4
Blue78
1066815.2
612036.3
1066525.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1068640608010012014016010178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+19Teleop
+17Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave6
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points6
21Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +10
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
70Total teleop60
Reef
5L4#5
6L3#5
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points0
101Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.10.0
38.138.1
Auto9.6
Teleop25.3
End7.3
red by 5.8
6120
#17DQ
36.30.1
33.933.8
Auto8.6
Teleop20.5
End7.1
Second
4130
#18
28.40.0
30.030.0
Auto4.9
Teleop22.8
End0.7
red by 2.5
25.90.1
22.722.6
Auto4.6
Teleop19.2
End2.1
Third
9679
#15
17.60.0
17.917.9
Auto5.6
Teleop9.2
End2.7
red by 2.4
15.20.1
15.215.1
Auto4.3
Teleop8.7
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsMissed63%Barge oddsMissed