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Red127
686126.6
571264.5
519341.4
Blue96
99938.5
353858.2
552718.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1588805020025012796

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+17Teleop
+31Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
9Leave6
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
33Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +10
18Coral scored#18
64Coral points64
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
78Total teleop88
Reef
10L4#7
5L3#7
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#23
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points0
127Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.50.3
62.061.7
Auto10.5
Teleop44.7
End9.5
red by 6.3
58.20.9
53.154.0
Auto13.2
Teleop44.7
End0.3
Second
41.40.3
42.442.1
Auto8.5
Teleop28.7
End4.2
red by 22.6
5527
#30
18.80.9
17.017.9
Auto2.7
Teleop13.2
End2.9
Third
6861
#18
26.60.3
27.627.2
Auto6.6
Teleop17.0
End3.0
red by 18.1
9993
#29
8.51.5
12.614.1
Auto0.9
Teleop6.8
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed