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Red168
521665.6
997016.7
924581.6
Blue88
214551.2
516647.4
664217.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1721415010020016888

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+98Teleop
+98Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points20
36Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +88
19Coral scored#7
70Coral points26
4Processor algae#0
6Net algae#1
24Processor points0
24Net points4
48Algae points4
118Total teleop30
Reef
12L4#4
5L3#4
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
35Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
0Foul points18
168Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.60.1
79.579.6
Auto16.6
Teleop56.4
End8.6
red by 30.4
51.24.3
54.650.3
Auto17.1
Teleop27.2
End6.9
Second
65.60.1
64.864.9
Auto16.9
Teleop47.8
End1.0
red by 18.2
5166
#17
47.44.3
52.748.4
Auto11.3
Teleop26.2
End10.0
Third
9970
#12
16.70.1
16.516.6
Auto4.7
Teleop7.6
End4.0
blue by 1.1
6642
#20
17.84.3
22.318.0
Auto2.8
Teleop13.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
62%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsEarned