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Red192
521665.6
924581.6
887335.5
Blue149
283251.7
686126.6
571264.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19914850100250300192149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+53Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave0
9Coral scored#6
43Coral points30
43Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +40
18Coral scored#18
63Coral points65
7Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
42Processor points12
28Net points16
70Algae points28
133Total teleop93
Reef
12L4#10
7L3#7
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points0
192Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.60.3
80.380.6
Auto16.6
Teleop56.4
End8.6
red by 17.1
64.50.2
63.463.6
Auto10.5
Teleop44.7
End9.5
Second
65.60.3
64.364.6
Auto16.9
Teleop47.8
End1.0
red by 13.9
51.70.2
50.650.8
Auto14.7
Teleop32.2
End4.8
Third
8873
#19
35.50.3
34.234.5
Auto4.9
Teleop25.0
End5.7
red by 8.9
6861
#18
26.60.2
25.525.7
Auto6.6
Teleop17.0
End3.0