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Red119
999814.2
560336.0
550937.1
Blue64
553828.4
999118.1
377040.8
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8010205015020025011964

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+53Teleop
+55Endgame
+55Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
9Leave0
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points9
40Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +22
13Coral scored#9
47Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
6Processor points6
20Net points12
26Algae points18
73Total teleop51
Reef
8L4#4
4L3#4
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +55
0Foul points0
119Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5509
#10
37.10.8
36.437.2
Auto8.1
Teleop22.7
End6.2
blue by 3.7
3770
#21
40.80.6
41.440.8
Auto4.0
Teleop26.8
End10.1
Second
5603
#13
36.00.8
35.436.1
Auto8.0
Teleop23.7
End4.4
red by 7.7
5538
#14
28.40.6
28.928.4
Auto5.4
Teleop17.7
End5.4
Third
9998
#23
14.21.3
13.214.4
Auto6.7
Teleop6.5
End0.7
blue by 3.8
9991
#11
18.10.9
19.018.1
Auto1.0
Teleop13.5
End3.2