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Red49
973613.2
552521.3
1066712.7
Blue48
553824.9
710914.2
973112.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions494102060801001204948

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+11Teleop
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points12
15Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
7Coral scored#3
24Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
28Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
49Total score48

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5525
#24
21.30.4
15.616.0
Auto4.8
Teleop14.2
End2.3
blue by 3.6
5538
#27
24.90.9
14.215.1
Auto5.1
Teleop14.3
End5.5
Second
9736
#23
13.20.4
11.912.3
Auto4.5
Teleop5.9
End2.9
blue by 1.0
7109
#32
14.20.9
8.29.1
Auto3.6
Teleop7.0
End3.6
Third
12.70.4
15.015.4
Auto3.9
Teleop6.9
End1.9
blue by 0.1
9731
#40
12.80.9
11.812.8
Auto3.1
Teleop7.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsEarned