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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7965020401001201409931

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+56Teleop
+68Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +47
14Coral scored#6
51Coral points20
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
12Processor points0
8Net points4
20Algae points4
71Total teleop24
Reef
7L4#2
3L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#7
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
0Foul points0
99Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.52.6
32.835.4
Auto6.5
Teleop32.2
End6.8
red by 28.3
17.23.7
22.719.0
Auto4.7
Teleop11.5
End1.0
Second
7553
#18
17.22.6
15.818.4
Auto4.3
Teleop10.6
End2.3
red by 3.9
8895
#32
13.33.7
19.315.5
Auto2.2
Teleop9.1
End2.0
Third
7202
#36
15.02.6
18.020.6
Auto2.7
Teleop8.2
End4.2
red by 3.8
7178
#38
11.33.7
16.713.0
Auto3.0
Teleop6.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned36%Barge oddsMissed