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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6611020408010012014016018078113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+19
Endgame+29
Fouls+35
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave6
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points6
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +30
11Coral scored#15
39Coral points53
0Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
0Processor points12
12Net points16
12Algae points28
51Total teleop81
Reef
8L4#7
3L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +35
0Foul points6
78Total score113

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.31.4
28.630.0
Auto4.0
Teleop19.8
End7.5
blue by 14.1
45.51.3
42.643.9
Auto6.5
Teleop32.2
End6.8
Second
5066
#11
29.11.4
26.127.5
Auto10.2
Teleop17.4
End1.5
blue by 2.3
548
#13
31.41.3
27.328.5
Auto4.7
Teleop25.4
End1.3
Third
9204
#35
12.31.6
8.49.9
Auto2.2
Teleop9.2
End0.8
blue by 14.9
27.21.3
20.822.1
Auto3.3
Teleop16.1
End7.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed70%Barge oddsEarned