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Red30
498317.0
522921.5
556014.7
Blue39
967218.2
696313.3
531426.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7463020401001201401603039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+9
Endgame+9
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +6
3Coral scored#4
9Coral points13
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
0Processor points6
8Net points4
8Algae points10
17Total teleop23
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#2
2L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points0
30Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5229
#21
21.54.5
20.616.1
Auto4.3
Teleop15.7
End1.5
blue by 5.1
5314
#16
26.52.7
22.920.3
Auto5.4
Teleop15.5
End5.7
Second
4983
#20
17.04.5
24.119.6
Auto4.8
Teleop10.3
End1.9
blue by 1.2
18.21.6
15.413.8
Auto3.4
Teleop12.5
End2.3
Third
5560
#38
14.74.5
20.015.5
Auto3.7
Teleop9.1
End2.0
red by 1.4
6963
#28
13.32.7
19.717.0
Auto2.8
Teleop7.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed