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Red36
556014.7
956812.8
968513.5
Blue79
612130.5
171123.1
240530.7
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3679020601001201403679

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+35
Endgame+49
Fouls+43
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points16
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +31
4Coral scored#10
16Coral points37
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
16Total teleop47
Reef
1L4#5
2L3#3
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
5Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +43
6Foul points0
36Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5560
#38
14.70.6
11.711.1
Auto3.7
Teleop9.1
End2.0
blue by 16.0
30.71.5
23.324.8
Auto4.7
Teleop23.5
End2.6
Second
9685
#37
13.50.6
11.811.2
Auto5.5
Teleop5.4
End2.5
blue by 17.0
30.51.5
24.025.5
Auto5.6
Teleop22.8
End2.1
Third
9568
#17
12.80.4
12.011.6
Auto3.8
Teleop7.4
End1.7
blue by 10.3
1711
#14
23.11.5
18.219.7
Auto4.3
Teleop13.1
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsEarned