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Red99
535241.5
968513.5
400339.6
Blue80
571237.3
370722.7
171123.1
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74872040601001201401609980

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+9Teleop
+19Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points6
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +8
11Coral scored#14
39Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
59Total teleop67
Reef
6L4#4
4L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
19Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points0
99Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.53.1
25.728.7
Auto11.1
Teleop24.6
End5.8
red by 4.2
5712
#13
37.30.2
39.539.6
Auto3.4
Teleop30.6
End3.3
Second
39.62.9
38.241.1
Auto7.3
Teleop30.6
End1.8
red by 16.5
1711
#14
23.10.1
19.319.4
Auto4.3
Teleop13.1
End5.7
Third
9685
#37
13.53.1
7.310.4
Auto5.5
Teleop5.4
End2.5
blue by 9.2
3707
#27
22.70.2
19.920.1
Auto5.5
Teleop15.6
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed