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Red95
531426.5
535241.5
664210.4
Blue61
571237.3
828615.4
71099.6
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions83672040601001201409561

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+18Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +4
8Coral scored#6
30Coral points22
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
50Total teleop46
Reef
3L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points0
95Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.51.1
39.340.4
Auto11.1
Teleop24.6
End5.8
red by 4.2
5712
#13
37.30.1
37.637.4
Auto3.4
Teleop30.6
End3.3
Second
5314
#16
26.51.1
25.526.6
Auto5.4
Teleop15.5
End5.7
red by 11.1
8286
#35
15.40.1
15.515.4
Auto1.9
Teleop11.3
End2.2
Third
6642
#29
10.41.1
9.310.4
Auto3.7
Teleop5.6
End1.1
red by 0.8
7109
#33
9.60.1
9.89.6
Auto3.7
Teleop4.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned25%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsMissed