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Red101
207544.0
8532.2
804121.9
Blue55
828516.1
1060629.1
609416.7
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9455020408012014016010155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+32Teleop
+32Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
10Coral scored#6
36Coral points22
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
50Total teleop32
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
14Foul points0
101Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.00.3
36.836.5
Auto8.3
Teleop27.1
End8.7
red by 14.9
29.10.7
16.215.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.3
End8.0
Second
85
#11
32.20.3
30.730.4
Auto7.2
Teleop21.3
End3.7
red by 15.5
6094
#22
16.70.7
17.216.5
Auto4.4
Teleop7.8
End4.5
Third
8041
#14
21.90.2
10.610.4
Auto3.6
Teleop14.7
End3.7
red by 5.9
8285
#30
16.10.7
17.316.6
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsEarned