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Red151
656110.3
357263.9
207544.0
Blue73
477637.3
781013.4
1061319.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1336205010015020015173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+60Teleop
+72Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave3
7Coral scored#3
35Coral points13
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +32
14Coral scored#9
51Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
12Processor points6
12Net points4
24Algae points10
75Total teleop43
Reef
8L4#3
7L3#4
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
6Foul points0
151Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.92.0
63.565.6
Auto19.6
Teleop35.2
End9.1
red by 26.6
37.30.6
35.035.6
Auto10.0
Teleop22.1
End5.2
Second
44.02.3
42.544.8
Auto8.3
Teleop27.1
End8.7
red by 24.1
19.90.5
19.419.9
Auto4.5
Teleop13.0
End2.4
Third
6561
#18
10.32.0
8.310.3
Auto3.8
Teleop4.5
End2.0
blue by 3.1
7810
#32
13.40.6
11.111.7
Auto3.4
Teleop7.6
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsEarned