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Red158
506662.1
54840.5
998642.8
Blue95
125029.3
557727.1
837340.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10810710011012013014015015895

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+55Teleop
+65Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
6Leave3
10Coral scored#3
52Coral points17
58Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +17
16Coral scored#16
56Coral points57
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
12Processor points6
16Net points4
28Algae points10
84Total teleop67
Reef
10L4#8
7L3#5
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
0Foul points2
158Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5066
#15
62.13.9
51.855.7
Auto18.1
Teleop44.1
End-0.0
red by 21.3
8373
#21
40.80.4
42.341.9
Auto5.9
Teleop31.6
End3.3
Second
9986
#13
42.86.5
13.920.4
Auto18.6
Teleop16.9
End7.1
red by 13.5
1250
#32
29.30.4
30.430.0
Auto3.0
Teleop25.2
End1.2
Third
548
#20
40.53.9
33.637.5
Auto9.3
Teleop28.1
End3.1
red by 13.4
5577
#24
27.10.4
25.625.3
Auto6.8
Teleop18.5
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
39%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsMissed