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Red146
837340.8
872828.1
661565.7
Blue133
506662.1
608151.1
103841.4
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14914450100200250146133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+19Teleop
+7Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
23Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
26Coral scored#22
93Coral points80
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
12Processor points12
8Net points16
20Algae points28
113Total teleop108
Reef
14L4#6
7L3#5
4L2#7
6L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points0
146Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6615
#25
65.70.4
60.259.8
Auto13.6
Teleop49.2
End3.0
red by 3.6
5066
#15
62.10.9
53.953.0
Auto18.1
Teleop44.1
End-0.0
Second
8373
#21
40.80.4
43.042.6
Auto5.9
Teleop31.6
End3.3
blue by 10.3
51.10.9
42.741.8
Auto8.3
Teleop34.5
End8.3
Third
8728
#23
28.10.4
25.124.8
Auto5.0
Teleop22.7
End0.4
blue by 13.3
1038
#17
41.40.9
33.332.4
Auto3.4
Teleop33.9
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
4%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsEarned