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Red143
654860.4
103841.4
125029.3
Blue146
319335.3
170181.2
999525.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12114950100200250143146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+15
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points31
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +8
20Coral scored#23
73Coral points83
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
97Total teleop105
Reef
10L4#7
5L3#7
6L2#9
5L1 · trough#6
31Game pieces#34
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
143Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.41.3
52.954.2
Auto18.9
Teleop37.5
End4.0
blue by 20.8
81.20.2
80.079.8
Auto20.7
Teleop51.8
End8.7
Second
1038
#17
41.41.3
34.736.1
Auto3.4
Teleop33.9
End4.1
red by 6.0
3193
#10
35.30.2
34.634.4
Auto8.2
Teleop25.7
End1.4
Third
1250
#32
29.31.3
24.325.6
Auto3.0
Teleop25.2
End1.2
red by 4.1
9995
#18
25.20.3
23.423.1
Auto4.3
Teleop18.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned26%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed