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Red154
360464.3
557727.1
353853.0
Blue171
364137.2
998642.8
365662.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1571410100200300400500154171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+1
Endgame+11
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
7Coral scored#9
34Coral points47
40Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +6
17Coral scored#19
60Coral points70
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
18Processor points6
20Net points16
38Algae points22
98Total teleop92
Reef
7L4#11
6L3#8
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points6
154Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.30.2
64.164.3
Auto14.1
Teleop41.1
End9.1
red by 2.1
62.20.5
61.762.2
Auto13.7
Teleop39.5
End9.2
Second
3538
#16
53.00.2
52.753.0
Auto15.0
Teleop38.3
End-0.3
red by 10.2
9986
#13
42.80.5
42.242.8
Auto18.6
Teleop16.9
End7.1
Third
5577
#24
27.10.2
26.927.1
Auto6.8
Teleop18.5
End1.9
blue by 10.1
3641
#19
37.20.5
36.637.2
Auto7.3
Teleop27.5
End2.5