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Red199
654860.4
608151.1
506662.1
Blue172
5144.1
24730.1
661565.7
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18315350100200250300199172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+47Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
3Leave3
11Coral scored#6
55Coral points30
58Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +22
23Coral scored#21
81Coral points77
5Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
30Processor points12
24Net points24
54Algae points36
135Total teleop113
Reef
15L4#11
8L3#9
5L2#5
6L1 · trough#2
45Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
199Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5066
#15
62.10.7
59.960.6
Auto18.1
Teleop44.1
End-0.0
blue by 3.6
6615
#25
65.70.8
64.965.7
Auto13.6
Teleop49.2
End3.0
Second
60.40.7
58.258.9
Auto18.9
Teleop37.5
End4.0
red by 16.4
51
#30
44.10.8
43.344.1
Auto8.4
Teleop27.3
End8.4
Third
51.10.7
48.849.6
Auto8.3
Teleop34.5
End8.3
red by 21.0
247
#8
30.10.8
29.430.1
Auto4.5
Teleop19.6
End6.0